Adaptation Online

The National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

2012-01-25T23:07:00.005-05:00

The National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy has been released for public review and comment. The strategy, which largely targets federal, state, and tribal natural resource managers and elected officials, contains a synthesis of the current state-of-knowledge regarding potential climate and non-climatic impacts to U.S. natural resources and ecosystems. This is followed by the identification of a range of strategic priorities for adaptation and actions to be pursued under each, and its gives proper lip-service to the importance of inter-agency coordination. Nevertheless, as we've seen many times before, it's rather clear that the policy framework for the design and implementation of such actions (i.e., the hard part) has yet to be developed. For example, as the strategy itself states,

"[The plan] is not a detailed operational plan, nor does it prescribe specific actions to be taken by specific agencies or organizations, or specific management actions for individual species. In addition, the development of strategies and actions for this document was not constrained by assumptions of current or future available resources."

So beyond it's general educational value to stakeholders, of what utility is strategy that doesn't provide details on implementation, actor responsibilities, or evaluation of the costs and benefits of different actions? At some point one hopes that such adaptation strategies will give way to more robust planning, decision, and investment frameworks to ensure the work that clearly needs to get done to facilitate the adaptation of natural ecosystems and resources actually gets done.

Recent Titles from ELDIS

2012-01-17T22:49:00.004-05:00

How important is information to disaster response? "This paper highlights recent advances in the use of climate information to improve livelihoods and save lives. By analysing experiences like that of the Red Cross in West Africa, it takes stock of the needs and capabilities of the humanitarian community and assesses the types of climate-related information products that may help inform disaster risk reduction and development decision-making processes."

How can disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation be integrated?
"This paper reviews the extent of convergence between disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) at a number of scales. It also examines what is at stake if the two agendas do not converge. The authors present updated evidence of where DRR and CCA are already converging and evaluate obstacles to further convergence."

Measuring the levels of urban climate disaster resilience: Climate Disaster Resilience Index
"Coastal urban cities in Asia are experiencing ever-increasing vulnerability due to climate change impacts and fast-growing urban development. This study measures the existing level of climate disaster resilience of the targeted areas using a Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) which is based on natural, physical, social, economic and institutional dimensions. Higher values of resilience are equivalent to higher preparedness to cope with climate and disasters and inversely."

ICARUS III

2012-01-16T13:30:00.002-05:00

ICARUS (Initiative on Climate Adaptation Research and Understanding through the Social Sciences) has issued a call for papers for the third ICARUS meeting to be held at Columbia University from Thursday May 17 through Sunday May 20, 2012. ICARUS-III follows on the ICARUS-I and II meetings organized at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign and the University of Michigan’s School of Natural Resources and Environment. The theme of the ICARUS-III meeting is “Scales, Frameworks and Metrics.”

More information available here: http://www.icarus.info/icarus-3-abstract-submission-2012/

PROVIA Seeks Conference Host

2012-01-15T09:15:00.002-05:00

With planning for ‘Adaptation Futures’ the 2nd International Conference on Climate
Adaptation already well underway, PROVIA (Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) is already seeking volunteers to host the 3rd conference in 2014. Any takers?

Leaks on the IPCC Ship

2012-01-13T17:27:00.003-05:00

Rumour has it that the IPCC continues to suffer from mysterious happenings out in cyberspace. An attempt has been made to post various "zero order draft (ZOD)" chapters from WGI and WGII of the Fifth Assessment Report to a website (go track it down yourself, I refuse to do anything more to facilitate this cheekiness by providing a link). Although as I write, those chapters no longer appear to be accessible.

As the ZODs tend to be very rough first cracks at chapter content (pre-formal peer review), they likely reveal little regarding what will eventually emerge from the IPCC process, although the very fact that they are so unpolished could be a bit embarrassing in itself. The IPCC is no stranger to politics and criticism, yet the magnifying glass under which the IPCC now finds itself has many authors thinking defensively. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is open to interpretation. No doubt, there will be many more attempts to access and dissiminate drafts in the months ahead.

Adaptation Positions at the University of Leeds

2012-01-13T17:21:00.002-05:00

New positions are currently being advertised at the University of Leeds for adaptation researchers. Dr. Suraje Dessai is leading a recruitment effort to attract two Research Fellows and a Lecturer. Recruitment is closing soon.

More information can be found here: http://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/jobs/

Director, Climate Adaptation Policy

2012-01-13T17:18:00.002-05:00

The Nature Conservancy has an opening for the position of Director, Climate Adaptation Policy (You've got until midnight to apply. . . ).

The Director of Climate Adaptation Policy will lead and manage policy activities as part of an integrated effort to further the climate adaptation agenda of the Conservancy. The Director of Climate Adaptation Policy provides direction to other government relations staff and also directly interacts with U.S. Federal agencies, Cabinet departments and White House offices; Congressional staff; and State, Tribal and local governments. In addition, the position will oversee Conservancy policy efforts in international fora such as negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, with international donor institutions, and in key countries identified in the Conservancy’s key country strategy (Brazil, Indonesia, China and Mexico). The position will be based within the Conservancy’s U.S. Government Relations Department, reporting to the Director, U.S. Government Relations, with a dotted line to the Climate Adaptation Strategy Leader and will work in close coordination with other external affairs staff and with the Conservancy’s Climate Adaptation Team as part of an organization-wide climate adaptation strategy. The Director of Climate Adaptation Policy may be required to register as a lobbyist under relevant provisions of U.S. law.

To Apply:
Go to http://www.nature.org/careers/ click on “How to Apply: and then on “View Positions”, and search for Position # 39593, Director, Climate Adaptation Policy. Applicants must complete the on-line application, submit a resume and cover letter as one document, and provide salary requirements. Applications accepted through midnight, January 13, 2012.

Book: Local Climate Action Planning

2012-01-13T17:10:00.001-05:00

Angela Osborn of Island Press sent me some details regarding a new book:

As more communities begin addressing the need to reduce energy consumption, a new set of tools will be required to inform that process.Local Climate Action Planning is the first book designed to help planners, municipal staff and officials, citizens and others working at local levels to develop Climate Action Plans. A CAP clearly outlines a community’s plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering energy consumption, and in the process creating a more livable, sustainable community. With examples drawn from actual plans, Local Climate Action Planning guides preparers of CAPs through the entire plan development process, identifying the key considerations and choices that must be made in order to assure that a plan is both workable and effective. This practical guide synthesizes the many disparate materials currently available on creating CAPs into one readable work. In addition, the authors present CAP case studies: communities that have created innovative plans and are in the process of implementing them, each uniquely demonstrating how CAPs can be suited to meet the needs of all types of localities.

The authors are climate action plan veterans, having worked on over three dozen CAPs and gas emission inventories. They also deliver a strong academic perspective, with experience researching and publishing on the state of climate action planning practice nationwide.

For more information, please visit www.islandpress.org/lcap. You may also view the book online: please visit http://bit.ly/rCexgQ to request access.

Did I Miss Anything?

2012-01-13T16:57:00.004-05:00

I was browsing through email sent to the Adaptation Online email address last night (something I hadn't done in quite some time), which led to the following realizations:

Posts have been infrequent in recent months, and by that I mean nonexistent.

People noticed the infrequency of posts - evidenced by emails with subject lines that read "Are you still there?"

A lot has transpired in the adaptation arena over the past half year

I won't make excuses, because I'm sure you don't care about how much time very small children can soak up (particularly those of the newborn variety); or the difficulties of balancing research, IPCC commitments, US National Assessment commitments, and the travel associated with each; or the pressures of attempting to find moderately interesting things to say about adaptation on a regular basis.

Suffice to say, I'm hoping to resume more frequent posts, as it's become clear that the less I blog about adaptation, the less aware I am of what's going on with adaptation. I won't attempt to catch-up on six months or so of happenings. However, I will try and cover some of the emails I did receive, with apologies if my response or post comes far too late to be of any use to you.

Adaptation through Municipal Planning

2011-06-01T09:39:00.004-04:00

Tom Measham of CSIRO et al have just published a new paper that examines the challenges associated with local governments purusing climate adaptation through city and regional planning processes. The paper is largely based on our experiences working with local governments in Sydney, Australia as part of the "Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises" project.

Abstract
Municipal planning represents a key avenue for local adaptation, but is subject to recognised constraints. To date, these constraints have focused on simplistic factors such as limited resources and lack of information. In this paper we argue that this focus has obscured a wider set of constraints which need to be acknowledged and addressed if adaptation is likely to advance through municipal planning. Although these recognised constraints are relevant, we argue that what underpins these issues are more fundamental challenges affecting local, placed-based planning by drawing on the related field of community-based environmental planning (CBEP). In considering a wider set of constraints to practical attempts towards adaptation, the paper considers planning based on a case study of three municipalities in Sydney, Australia in 2008. The results demonstrate that climate adaptation was widely accepted as an important issue for planning conducted by local governments. However, it was yet to be embedded in planning practice which retained a strong mitigation bias in relation to climate change. In considering the case study, we draw attention to factors thus far under-acknowledged in the climate adaptation literature. These include leadership, institutional context and competing planning agendas. These factors can serve as constraints or enabling mechanisms for achieving climate adaptation depending upon how they are exploited in any given situation. The paper concludes that, through addressing these issues, local, place-based planning can play a greater role in achieving climate adaptation.

Governance for Global Change

2011-05-28T13:13:00.002-04:00

The Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance took place 17-20 May at Colorado State University.The conference was hosted jointly by the Environmental Governance Working Group and the School of Global Environmental Sustainability at Colorado State University along with the IHDP Earth System Governance Project.

I presented a paper on the interactions between assessments of climate risk and governance systems, entitled Embedding Climate Change Risk Assessment in a Governance Context:

Abstract
Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia’s governance system emphasizes ‘evidence-based’ decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit’ model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external ‘experts’ on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well designed risk assessments can contribute to ‘multi-loop’ learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

Go here to view all papers from the conference

Plenty of Room for Improvement

2011-05-13T23:41:00.004-04:00

While I generally opt out of trawling through the journals for every scrap of new literature on adaptation, a number of recent papers (including one of my own) have already emerged this year that collectively question the utility of adaptation planning or at least question the extent to which such planning reflects actual implementation of substantive actions to reduce climate vulnerability. These studies, along with a range of additional literature cited within, suggest we have a long walk ahead on the adaptation pathway before we reach the outcomes which one might actually consider to be adaptive. Or, at the very least, we might need to reexamine exactly what it is that we hope to achieve through our investments in adaptation planning.

Berrang-Ford L, Ford JD, Paterson J (2011) Are we adapting to climate change? Global Environmental Change 21(1):25-33.

Eakin HC, Patt A (2011)Are adaptation studies effective, and what can enhance their practical impact? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.100.

Ford JD, Berrang-Ford L, Paterson J (2011) A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations. Climatic Change Letters, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0045-5.

Preston BL, Westaway RM, Yuen E (2011) Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16(4):407-438.

Impacts, Adaptation, and Ports

2011-05-13T23:15:00.004-04:00

The International Finance Corporation has released a lengthy report on climate change impacts and adaptation in ports, focusing on the specific case study ofTerminal Maritimo Muelles El Bosque (MEB) in Cartagena, Colombia. The study examines both the direct impacts of climate chagne on MEB operations as well as potential indirect impacts arising from the effects of climate change on the global economy and trade. It wraps up with a few specific adaptation options including elevating infrastructure, increasing drainage, expanding operations relating to climate-resilient economic activities, and insurance.

Why We Don't Believe in Science

2011-05-13T23:00:00.004-04:00

Chris Mooney has this interesting article in Mother Jones about the science exploring the inability of humans to separate emotion from reason and, ultimately, why the communication of climate science is therefore unlikely to win any converts in the climate change debate.

By the way, Mooney's article covers much of the same ground as Dan Gardner's recent book, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better.

A Global Framework for Climate Services

2011-05-13T17:16:00.010-04:00

Way back in 2009, at the World Climate Conference-3, a decision was made by the international community to pursue the development of a global framework for climate services. A 'High Level Task Force' was subsequently assembled to lead the development of that framework, and, this week, that framework was released. The framework acknowledges the value that climate services plan in climate risk management and the need for such services to be tailored to the needs of a diverse array of end users. However, the framework also notes that there are significant disparities internationally with respect to the availability of and access to climate information. Hence, significant capacity building will be necessary to implement the proposed framework.

The framework itself is comprised of five components:

The User Interface Platform will provide a means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact, thereby maximising the usefulness of climate services and helping develop new and improved applications of climate information.

The Climate Services Information System is the system needed to protect and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers.

The Observations and Monitoring component will ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated.

The Research, Modelling and Prediction component will assess and promote the needs of climate services within research agendas.

The Capacity Building component will support systematic development of the necessary institutions, infrastructure and human resources to provide effective climate services.

The proposed framework will be decided at the upcoming 16th World Meteorological Congress (16 May - 3 June 2011, Geneva, Switzerland).

Help Wanted

2011-05-11T14:05:00.000-04:00

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (USA) has openings for the following two postdoctoral positions:

Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Adaptation
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN

Postdoctoral Researcher in Uncertainty Analysis of Integrated Assessment Models
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN

Information on how to apply can be found within the position description.

British Columbia Coastal Adaptation Guidelines

2011-05-10T22:19:00.003-04:00

Over the past year, the Government of British Columbia (BC) has commissioned updates to its guidelines for managing coastal flooding. In 2010, BC released updated Guidelines for Management of Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use and earlier this year it released an update to its Dike Design and Construction Guide. The updates were drafted to reflect changes in baseline assumptions regarding sea-level rise, with BC policy now based on a estimated 1 metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and 2 metres by 2200. The guidance also indicates these assumptions will be revisited every five years. So it appears the new BC guidelines are perhaps a rather straightforward example of mainstreaming adaptation in action.

GAIN

2011-05-10T21:59:00.005-04:00

The Global Adaptation Institute (GAI) recently wrapped up its annual meeting in Washington DC, where it announced its progress toward the development of GAIN - a Global Adaptation INdex, which apparently will provide a metric of a) the vulnerability of a country to the effects of climate change and other global forces and b) the readiness of a country to successfully implement Adaptation solutions. According to GAI, GAIN will be the principle vehicle by which GAI will prioritize adaptation projects for funding. I'm eager to hear more, as it's hard for me to imagine how a national index can be put to effective use in prioritizing adaptation projects across the developing world. In fact, I'm pretty sure any number of reasonably intelligent folks have explictly recommended against this type of thing. . .

Climate Resilient UK Infrastructure

2011-05-10T21:27:00.003-04:00

The UK's Department of Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs released a report on Monday that identifies the adaptation challenges that the nation's transport, energy, water and ICT (information and communication technologies) infrastructure sectors will face due to climate change. In addition to the usual long list of potential problems that various bits of infrastructure are likely to encounter, the report also provides an equally long (but vague) list of adaptation options such as embedding adaptation in infrastructure development and developing new ways of building climate resilient infrastructure - outcomes that will naturally be achieved under the leadership of the UK government and its various initiatives.

On a more amusing note, in it's reporting of the report release, The Guardian (UK) chose to focus on a particularly worrying finding of the DEFRA study - the potential for climate change to have adverse impacts on the UK's WiFi infrastructure. Finally, after all these years, the climate change community is starting to produce information about the kinds of impacts of climate change that people really care about.

Adaptation Masterclass

2011-05-10T21:10:00.002-04:00

For those of you in the Australia region, there's still time to register for the Adaptation Masterclass that's being hosted by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). Thanks to next week's IPCC author's meeting for the Special Report on Extremes, a host of bright minds will be converging on southeast Queensland, some of whom have been recruited to participate in the one day Masterclass.

Date: Friday 20 May 2011, 8.30am to 6pm
Location: Cinema A, Gallery of Modern Art, South Bank, Brisbane

Sessions and speakers
Assessing adaptation practices
Roger Polwarty

Limits to adaptation, maladaptation
Jon Barnett, University of Melbourne, Australia

Risk and Risk Management
Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross-Red Crescent Climate Centre, Netherlands

Linking Global Science and Local Knowledge
Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National University, USA

Bridging the science-policy interface
Susanne Moser, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, USA

Hazard response: reducing risk or vulnerability?
Lisa Schipper, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden

Gender and climate change
Maureen Fordham, Northumbria University, UK

Prioritising adaptation and conservation
Stephen Williams, James Cook University, Australia

Adaptation in developing countries
Pauline Dube, University of Botswana

ICLEI Canada: Adaptation Guidance for Municipal Governments

2011-05-10T20:42:00.004-04:00

Although it might be fair to say that ICLEI was somewhat of a latecomer to the adaptation issue, over the past couple of years, it's various regional entities have been actively working to make up for lost time. ICLEI Oceania (i.e., Australia) released it's Adaptation Toolkit in 2008. More recently, ICLEI Canada developed guidance for Canada's local governments for undertaking climate change adaptation plans. The overlap between ICLEI Canada's guidance and ICLEI Oceania's toolkit is rather substantial (but then such overlap exists across the multitude of guidance instruments now available). Both efforts also take the approach of linking the guidance to a series of worksheets and templates for adaptation planners to help walk them through the steps.

2011-05-10T20:27:00.003-04:00

The UNFCCC recently published a report summarizing progress made to date with respect to implementation of the Nairobi Work Programme. For those, like myself, who haven't been keeping up on current events, the NWP's objective is to assist Parties to the UNFCCC, particularly developing countries, to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures.

Report Summary
This report provides an overview of the progress made in implementing activities under the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change since the thirty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice. It describes the continued engagement of organizations, institutions, experts, communities and the private sector in the activities of the Nairobi work programme, as well as the secretariats efforts to enhance the outreach of the work programme. The report further provides information on collaborations that have been catalysed between Nairobi work programme partner organizations and Parties, and concludes with a brief overview of possible next steps, taking into account the review of the work programme.

Impacts and Adaptation in Wisconsin

2011-02-23T22:10:00.003-05:00

While the State of Wisconsin might currently be embroiled in a debate over the future of collective bargaining, earlier this year, the state produced a new report on the impacts of climate change and possible adaptation responses. The report, Wisconsin's Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation, summarizes what is known about potential impacts to a range of key sectors (water resources, biodiversity, agriculture, coasts, and "people and their environment"). When it comes to adaptation, the report largely discusses broad principles (such as the pursuit of 'no regrets' strategies) and generic categories of adaptive responses. Nevertheless, the report appears to be just the opening salvo in what will be a series of reports by the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts.

Garnaut Revisted

2011-02-22T21:29:00.004-05:00

Just a couple of years after the 2008 report, Australia's Ross Garnaut is currently rolling out updates of his review of the economics of climate change. The 2011 update is comprised of a series of papers addressing key topics relevant to climate policy in the land down under. Those papers are being released between February and March, followed by a final report in May. Release dates for the papers are listed below:

1.3 February 2011: Weighing the costs and benefits of climate change action
2.7 February 2011: Progress towards effective global action on climate change
3.11 February 2011: Global emissions trends
4.1 March 2011: Transforming rural land use
5.10 March 2011: The science of climate change
6.17 March 2011: Carbon pricing and reducing Australia's emissions
7.23 March 2011: Low emissions technology and the innovation challenge
8.29 March 2011: Transforming the electricity sector

I anticipate a final report that:
a) provides a relatively optimistic outlook on international mitigation efforts
b) finds an increased urgency for climate policy due to growing evidence of climate impacts
c) concludes that the potential benefits of GHG mitigation policy are even more favourable now than in 2008

We shall see. . .

Adaptation and Risk Management

2011-02-22T20:57:00.004-05:00

Roger Jones and I recently published a paper in WIREs Climate Change* that reviews the state-of-play with respect to risk management approaches to climate change.

Abstract
Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top‐down and bottom‐up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top‐down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. A broad range of material from within and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.

*Jones RN, Preston BL (2011) Adaptation and Risk Management. WIREs Climate Change, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.97

World Resources Report - Adaptation

2011-02-22T20:30:00.003-05:00

If you haven't already heard, the next iteration of the World Resources Report targets climate change adaptation, particularly in the developing world. As part of the WRR process, a website has been created (http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/ ), which features the various research efforts that are being undertaken. Those efforts include the solicitation of 'expert perspectives', national case studies addressing management challenges in different sectors, as well as a synthesis report. A number of commentaries are already available for comment, and if nothing else, the website's "News" page may prove useful, for those interested in adaptation issues.

Mapping Vulnerability

2011-02-22T19:59:00.007-05:00

My colleagues and I had a paper accepted to the journal Sustainability Science* this week that discusses some of the opportunities and risks associated with the growing practice of mapping vulnerability to climate change. In that paper, we highlight some of the limitations of vulnerability indices often used in mapping studies as well as the questionable utility of such metrics for actual decision-making on adaptation.

Coincidentally, just this week, I also came across a recent World Bank study entitled, Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change, which develops a vulnerability index and applies it to Tajikistan. The World Bank study illustrates quite nicely many of the problems we raised with vulnerability mapping practice, from ambiguous vulnerability indices to unfounded claims regarding the decision-relevance of the analysis to a lack of consideration for future changes in biophysical and/or socioeconomic states.

One would assume that the World Bank is capable of more rigorous work, and if this is the type of information upon which future decisions regarding the prioritization of investments in adaptation are going to be based, should be worried?

*Preston BL, Yuen EJ, Westaway R (2011) Putting Climate Change Vulnerability on the Map: A Review of Approaches, Benefits, and Risks. Sustainability Science, in press.

Climate Risk in Megacities

2010-12-05T22:16:00.004-05:00

The Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and the World Bank have completed their work assessing climate change impacts to Asian Megacities. That work, published in the report Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Megacities, examines climate risk and potential adaptation responses in the cities of Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bangkok. The following summarizes the major points emerging from the report:

Key Findings

Frequency of extreme events likely to increase. All three coastal megacities are likely to witness increases in temperature and precipitation linked with climate change and variability.
Increase in flood-prone area due to climate change in all three cities. In all three megacities, in 2050, there is an increase in the area likely to be flooded under different climate scenarios compared to a situation without climate change.
Increase in population exposed to flooding. In all three cities, there is likely to be an increase in the number of persons exposed to flooding in 2050 under different climate scenarios compared to a situation without climate change.
Costs of damage likely to be substantial and can range from 2 to 6 percent of regional GDP.
Damage to buildings is an important component of flood-related costs.
Impact on the poor and vulnerable will be substantial, but even better-off communities will be affected by flooding.
Land subsidence is a major problem and can account for a greater share of the damage cost from flooding compared to climate-related factors.

Recommendations

Better management of urban environment and infrastructure will help manage potential climate-related impacts. Analysis carried out in the city case studies show that sound urban environmental management is also good for climate adaptation.
Climate-related risks should be considered as an integral part of city and regional planning. While improved urban environmental management is important, the studies also show that given the additional costs linked with climate change, cities need to make a proactive effort to consider climate related risks as an integral part of urban planning and to do so now.
Targeted, city-specific solutions combining infrastructure investments, zoning, and ecosystem-based strategies are required. Given that cities are characterized by distinct climatic, hydrological, and socioeconomic features—but also that the urban poor in general are more vulnerable to increased flooding due to climate change—targeted, city-specific, and cutting edge approaches to urban adaptation are needed.

UNDP Adaptation Toolkit

2010-11-30T20:36:00.005-05:00

For those who feel the need for more guidance on how to plan for and implement adaptation strategies, the UNDP has developed an adaptation "toolkit" for practitioners. Unlike the UNDP's earlier Adaptation Policy Framework, the toolkit is rather user-friendly, and its utility lies perhaps in its presentation of portfolios of approaches to undertaking different aspects of adaptation planning. For example, the toolkit contains examples of a range of approaches to framing adaptation planning, developing and applying scenarios, decision-making regarding adaptation options, and stakeholder engagement. As such, users of the toolkit can review individual tools, select those that appear most consistent with a given context, and thereby assemble a comprehensive, but tailored, approach to adaptation. In my humble opinion, society is beyond the point of needing a new and improved framework for adaptation. Rather, what's needed is understanding regarding the specific contexts in which different existing approaches to adaptation are more or less effective. The UNDP's new toolkit at least provides that range of approaches, although one is still left one one's own to determine the appropriateness of those approaches.

For a more lengthy list of adaptation frameworks, look here.

The Economist on Adaptation

2010-11-30T16:29:00.003-05:00

The latest issue of The Economist has an article on adaptation that covers the obstacles which have historically stood in the way of adaptation taking center-stage in the climate policy arena, the reasons why those obstacles are are starting to evaporate, and the significant challenge of addressing the capacity gaps of the developing world.

Climate Change in India

2010-11-27T23:20:00.004-05:00

The Government of India and the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment have released an up-to-date report on observed and projected climate change for India, which also includes assessments of climate change impacts to four sectors in four regions. The four sectors include agriculture, water, human health, and forests while the four sectors span the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the Northeast, and the coast. While the report frequently notes the importance of, and potential for, adaptation in reducing the adverse consequences of climate change, it says little about specific adaptation policies and measures and their associated costs and benefits. Hence, it's unclear how this thorough assessment of the potential consequences of climate change will be translated into actions to avoid those consequences. Perhaps that is a task for a future report. . .

Pot, Kettle, Black?

2010-11-27T22:44:00.004-05:00

USA Today is reporting that a 2006 report produced by Edward Wegman of George Mason University, which was critical of scientific findings of anomalous warming of the northern hemisphere in recent decades relative to the past 1,000 years, has come under fire after independent analyses have uncovered evidence of plagiarism. The report was originally requested by Representative Joe Barton (Texas) in 2005 and subsequently cited by Barton and a host of others as scientific evidence questioning the validity of anthropogenic climate change. Needless to say, one would expect more from climate change contrarians who constantly express the need for a return to traditional scientific methods and more rigorous investigation of climate change.

ICLEI USA's Climate Resilient Communities Program

2010-11-27T22:14:00.003-05:00

ICLEI USA recently launched its Climate Resilient Communities Program (CRC), which provides a range of adaptation resources tailored to the needs of local government. Those resources include the Adaptation Database and Planning Tool (ADAPT), as well as information on the science of climate change, guidance on vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning, case studies of adaptation, as well as training and networking for local government staff.

The CRC will be implemented initially in eight cities and counties (and presumably ICLEI would be happy to see a long list of local governments follow suit):

Boston, Massachusetts
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Flagstaff, Arizona
Grand Rapids, Michigan
Lee County, Florida
Miami-Dade County, Florida
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC)
Tucson, Arizona

Interestingly, ICLEI USA's CRC follows on the heels of ICLEI Oceania's Adaptation and Resilient Communities Program (ARC), which was launched in Australia back in 2008. Much like the CRC, the ARC offered an adaptation toolkit for local government, structured around a risk management paradigm. As usual, Australia appears to be the international trailblazer with respect to adaptation. Nevertheless, it's nice to see the USA finally starting to take up the issue, and ICLEI providing some leadership in this regard.

2010-11-27T21:17:00.004-05:00

Last month, the White House Council of Environmental Quality's Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force released it's progress report containing a number of recommendations for how to facilitate adaptation across U.S. government agencies. While these recommendations represent the first step (of many) toward a coordinated federal approach to climate adaption, it's probably fair to say that it doesn't quite reflect the challenges involved in securing that coordination. While one can readily imagine adaptation planning within individual agencies, it's more difficult to envision how the discrete efforts within those agencies are integrated into a coherent federal program. Furthermore, the ultimate goal, as recognized within the America's Climate Choices report on adaptation, shouldn't simply be a federal approach, but a national approach. In any case, the key recommendations are:

Encourage and Mainstream Adaptation Planning across the Federal Government – Climate change will challenge the mission, operations, and programs of nearly every Federal agency. Ensuring that the Federal Government has the capacity to execute its missions and maintain important services in the face of climate change is essential.
Improve Integration of Science into Decision Making – Access to integrated,interdisciplinary science is critical to understanding potential climate change impacts, and informing the development, implementation and evaluation of response strategies.
Address Key Cross‐Cutting Issues – The breadth of certain climate change impacts creates challenges that cut across the jurisdictions and missions of individual Federal agencies. Addressing these issues will require a collaborative approach along with coordination and partnerships at the local, state, Tribal, and regional levels.
Enhance Efforts to Lead and Support International Adaptation – Climate change poses risks and opportunities that are important to many of the U.S. Government’s international development,security, and diplomatic priorities. Climate change adaptation should be a core consideration in the design and implementation of U.S. foreign assistance activities. Agencies should enhance collaboration to support international adaptation objectives.
Coordinate Capabilities of the Federal Government to Support Adaptation – The Federal Government should improve coordination of its science, services, and assessments to better support stakeholders.

As for what comes next, the Task Force states:

"Agencies will initiate a formal adaptation planning process with the support of the Office of the Federal Environmental Executive (OFEE). USGCRP will continue efforts to build a robust body of science and critical tools to support decision making, and interagency workgroups will collaborate to address cross-cutting issues and support international adaptation objectives. In addition, agencies will continue to develop and strengthen individual and interagency adaptation initiatives, such as the National Climate Assessment and efforts to provide climate services (e.g., modeling, decision-support tools)."

Evaluating Adaptation Planning

2010-11-26T22:40:00.006-05:00

With adaptation growing in popularity as a complementary risk management strategy to mitigation (particularly in the wake of Copenhagen), one might wonder to what extent the proliferation of adaptation planning is increasing the resilience of institutions and society-at-large to cope with climate change. A paper recently published by myself and co-authors suggests that the plans that are increasingly emerging to guide adaptation may fall short of securing robust responses. In Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice: An Evaluation of Adaptation Plans from Three Developed Nations, we report on a study evaluating several dozen adaptation plans. Our conclusion - while formal adaptation planning represent critical institutional learning about managing climate risk, such planning appears to fall well short of a mature practice.

Preston BL, Westaway RM, Yuen EJ (2010) Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change. DOI 10.1007/s11027-010-9270-x

Abstract "Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly at a range of geo-political scales. This first generation of adaptation plans provides useful information regarding how institutions are framing the issue of adaptation and the range of processes that are recognized as being part of an adaptation response. To better understand adaptation planning among developed nations, a set of 57 adaptation plans from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States was evaluated against a suite of 19 planning processes identified from existing guidance instruments for adaptation planning. Total scores among evaluated plans ranged from 16% of the maximum possible score to 61%, with an average of 37%. These results suggest adaptation plans are largely under-developed. Critical weaknesses in adaptation planning are related to limited consideration for non-climatic factors as well as neglect for issues of adaptive capacity including entitlements to various forms of capital needed for effective adaptation. Such gaps in planning suggest there are opportunities for institutions to make better use of existing guidance for adaptation planning and the need to consider the broader governance context in which adaptation will occur. In addition, the adaptation options prescribed by adaptation plans reflect a preferential bias toward low-risk capacity-building (72% of identified options) over the delivery of specific actions to reduce vulnerability. To the extent these findings are representative of the state of developed nation adaptation planning, there appear to be significant deficiencies in climate change preparedness, even among those nations often assumed to have the greatest adaptive capacity."

Practical Adaptation

2010-10-23T22:23:00.003-04:00

Anthony Nyong, manager of the Compliance and Safeguard Division at the African Development Bank, recently directed some pointed criticism at the international climate science and adaptation communities:

"85 per cent of the money coming to Africa for adaptation is used for 'capacity building' [meetings] in hotels - yet nobody has ever built capacity in a hotel"

Nyong suggested time is being wasted in the study of climate change and adaptation processes by researchers and the pursuit of small-scale adaptation pilot projects. Nyong stressed the need for a new approach to adaptation which focuses on embedding adaptation within a broader and more vigorous development agenda that enhances the capacity of people to cope with climate change.

While climate science will continue to remain fundamental to supporting adaptation efforts, Nyong's comments remind us that the research community has an obligation to see that research translated into action.

U.S. Climate Knowledge

2010-10-23T22:01:00.005-04:00

Tony Leiserowitz et al have published a survey of U.S. knowledge of climate change. While the results aren't particularly encouraging (with over 50% of survey respondents scoring an 'F'), this is probably representative of the U.S. public's knowledge of science in general. Nevertheless, it highlights the significant challenges involved in building public support for climate policy (be it mitigation or adaptation). The good news: the survey evidences the long-held public trust in the scientific community.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Climate Change Strategy

2010-10-01T21:17:00.004-04:00

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has released the final version of its strategic plan for climate change. The plan focuses on three key strategies: adaptation, mitigation, and stakeholder engagement. When it comes to its proposed actions on adaptation, however, the strategy largely proposes to develop another strategy, specifically a National Fish and Wildlife Climate Adaptation Strategy, along with a range of institutional capacity building activities.

USGS Continues to Role Out Climate Science Centers

2010-09-30T22:46:00.005-04:00

As of September 23, 2010, the U.S. Geologic Survey has announced the hosts of three of its eight regional climate change science centers. North Carolina State University was recently selected to host the southeast regional center, while the consortium of Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Idaho will host the northwest center. The University of Alaska-Fairbanks was awarded the Alaska center earlier this month.

According to the USGS:

"Once fully instituted, the Climate Science Centers will be a “seamless network” to access the best science available to help managers in the Interior Department, states, other federal agencies, and the private and nonprofit sectors. The science agenda of each CSC will be identified through a partnership steering committee that includes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and other federal, state, and local partners to ensure that the CSC’s work is meeting the priority needs of resource managers in each region."

Fate of the World

2010-09-30T22:29:00.005-04:00

Think you can manage the climate change challenge? Well, now you can put your global management skills to the test. Red Redemption, Ltd has released "Fate of the World" - a global strategy game that challenges players to save the world (and humanity) through multiple environmental missions. Apparently, scientists from Oxford University contributed their knowledge to the development of the game's doom and gloom scenarios.

Red Redemption will be accepting pre-orders from October 29, 2010.

Is the UK Adapting? What about the US?

2010-09-30T22:17:00.009-04:00

The UK's Adaptation Sub-Committee has reported that the nation still has a long journey ahead in building a society that is resilient to climate change. In its report on the status of the nation's adaptation preparedness, the committee finds that despite evidence of growing capacity and awareness, such capacity building "is not yet systematically translating into tangible action on the ground." The report identifies a range of persistent barriers to adaptation including limited access to information on climate risk, failure by institutions to account for climate risk, market and policy barriers, and low prioritization of climate on institutional agendas.

Meanwhile, a similar report by the U.S. National Climate Adaptation Summit Committee has stressed the need for the U.S. to advance a national adaptation agenda. The committee's report synthesizes the outcomes from the National Adaptation Summit held in Washington, DC in May of 2010. Interestingly, if one compares the two reports, one finds that the U.S. is primarily focused on raising awareness of the issue across U.S. agencies and stakeholders and advocating for more research regarding climate change impacts. The UK, however, appears to be already digging into the institutional barriers that hinder the actual implementation of adaptation policies, which might cause one to think that one of these nations is perhaps further along the path in orienting itself toward the adaptation challenge.

New Institute for Adaptation

2010-09-01T22:22:00.005-04:00

Various media outlets are reporting that a new non-profit institution focused on climate change adaptation is due to emerge in the Washington, DC area later this year. The aptly named Global Adaptation Institute already has a Facebook page, and it appears former World Bank executive Dr. Juan J. Daboub will be the institutes's first CEO. Beyond that, all that is known at this point about the organization is its mission statement:

"Our mission is to enhance the understanding of the world’s pressing need for adaptation to Climate Change and to provide private funding for effective projects that help developing economies adapt to the changing world."

Much More Ado about Nothing

2010-08-31T22:13:00.004-04:00

The InterAcademy Council has released its independent review of the IPCC and provided a number of recommendations aimed at tightening up what it acknowledges to be a generally rigorous process. As with the other various reviews that have emerged in the wake of 'Climategate', the council's report found no evidence of conspiracy, fraud, or incompetence. The measures that are recommended, which, if applied, would place an additional (but not necessarily unwarranted) burden on the IPCC and its authors, are indicative of the lofty expectations placed on the IPCC and the powerful influence it wields in policy circles (not that such influence is evident within actual policy). The greater the stakes in the climate policy debate, the greater the scrutiny the IPCC will receive.

Meanwhile, the Gaurdian is reporting on an interview with the Skeptical Environmentalist himself, Lomborg, who is releasing yet another book on climate change. This time around, Lomborg appears to have changed his tune a bit regarding the urgency of the climate change challenge. With the Skeptical Environmentalist, he argued that climate change was in fact a real problem, but not necessarily a priority for the global economy and human well-being. Now, in Smart Solutions to Climate Change, Lomborg reportedly has called for annual investments of $100 billion per year for R&D to find technical solutions to climate change, paid for by none other than a carbon tax. Technical solutions alone, of course, don't necessarily address the problem. For centuries we've put our trust in a new technology waiting around the corner to address problems of the present. The promise of a technical fix is thus just one more way of avoiding tough decisions. Still, it's a bit of a shift for Lomborg, which is likely to induce shrugs in all the other so-called skeptics.

The skeptics have also taken a hit in Virginia, where a judge has opted not to play ball with the Attorney General. Circuit Court Judge Paul M. Peatross Jr. has set aside a subpoena issued by the AG to the University of Virginia for documents pertaining to the research of former UVA faculty member, Michael Mann, as part of the AG's investigation of potential fraud on behalf of the researcher. The judge ruled that the AG failed to provide a basis for the fraud accusation. One can only wonder what will happen next. . .

Energy Adaptation Toolkit

2010-08-26T22:36:00.005-04:00

The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program administered by the World Bank has produced what it calls a Hands-On Energy Adaptation Toolkit (HEAT), and on can only assume that it's "hands on" because HEAT makes for a more relevant acronym than EAT. In any case, HEAT leads users through the process of assessing the vulnerability of energy systems and developing appropriate adaptation strategies. The tool will look familiar to anyone who's ever seen a risk assessment/management or adaptation planning framework. Apparently, the tool was successfully trialed in Albania and Uzbekistan, so if you have any energy systems or infrastructure that could use some adaptation planning, give it a try.

Climate Adaptation in New Zealand

2010-08-22T15:54:00.003-04:00

The New Zealand Climate Change Centre has produced a report entitled Climate Change Adaptation in New Zealand: Future Scenarios and Some Sectoral Perspectives. The report takes a triple bottom line approach to synthesizing adaptation issues across key sectors and interests including primary industries, human health, biodiversity, energy and Maori culture.

Adaptation Costs in the Carribean

2010-08-22T15:43:00.004-04:00

The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) has released the preliminary results of a study on the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) in the Caribbean. The results span eight countries (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Dominica, Jamaica, and St. Lucia), but at the moment, the details are limited to a 28-page brochure. In brief, the study finds that climate change could eventually contribute to additional economic losses from severe weather in the Caribbean on the order of 1-3% of GDP (in addition to the current annual average losses of 6% of GDP). However, the study also finds that up to 90% of these losses can be avoided through adaptation mechanisms to reduce vulnerability.

Victoria Bushfire Royal Commission Final Report

2010-07-31T12:18:00.006-04:00

Victoria's Bushfire Royal Commission has released its final report on the Black Saturday bushfires of February 7, 2009, which claimed the lives of 173 Victorians, with most victims in the periurban regions of Melbourne. Interestingly, the Commission didn't shy away from controversial recommendations, including proposing that at-risk communities in bushfire prone areas should be depopulated under a "retreat and resettlement" policy:

"Applying land-use planning and building controls to minimise or reduce bushfire
risk presents challenges. In particular, the planning and building systems operate prospectively and have little capacity to deal with past decisions and existing settlements or buildings in bushfire-prone areas, so they cannot account for people who are already living in areas of extremely high risk. The Commission therefore proposes that action be taken to help people move away from those areas where other bushfire risk-mitigation measures are not viable. In particular, the State should develop and implement a voluntary retreat and resettlement strategy—including non-compulsory land acquisition—for existing developments in areas at unacceptably high bushfire risk."

The Commission therefore highlights some of the difficult choices that decision-makers and individuals will have to make. Robust risk management for such events is difficult to envision if development continues to proliferate in at-risk periurban regions. On the other hand, risk minimization has traditionally been difficult to reconcile with individual property rights and demand for amenity lifestyles. Whether the political powers that be are willing to implement such dramatic vulnerability reduction measures remains to be seen, but Australia's development has never shied away from hazards. That seems unlikely to change now.

Update 8/26/2010: The Victoria government has responded to the Commission's recommendations and, not surprisingly, has opted to support those recommendations which represent incremental, uncontroversial responses, while dismissing some of the more transformational changes recommended by the Commission as too disruptive or costly.

Knowledge Sharing Innovation Fund v.2.0

2010-07-29T20:07:00.002-04:00

AfricaAdapt has announced the launch of its second edition of its Knowledge Sharing Innovation Fund. The fund provides support in the form of US$6,500 grants for new knowledge sharing initiatives about climate change adaptation that engage marginalised communities on the continent.

Climate Change South of the Border

2010-07-27T19:36:00.005-04:00

Feng et al. recently released this paper in PNAS on climate change, crop yields in Mexico, and migration. Although quite timely, the study unfortunately stops short of discussing the larger equity implications of the work. The idea that increased migration pressure could result as a consequence of climate change could add a new dimension to the immigration debate. What responsibilities do developed nations have to environmental migrants given historical responsibilities for greenhouse gas emissions and climate change?

Abstract

Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including
immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the
linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people’s
migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method
allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without
explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level
data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in
crop yields on the rate ofemigration to the United States. The estimated
semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately −0.2,
i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional2%of the population
toemigrate.Wethen use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential
magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and
adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately
the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult
Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15–65 y) to emigrate as a
result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results
cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our
findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions,
especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines
in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.

Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects

2010-07-27T18:56:00.003-04:00

The World Bank has produced an overview report on the topic of evaluation of adaptation projects - an issue that is likely to become increasingly important, yet methods and approaches for evaluation are currently quite limited. This report focuses on understanding the economic basis of evaluation with an emphasis on cost/benefit analysis. However, the report also discusses the role of multi-criteria analysis and real options, both of which provide pathways for expanding the evaluation of adaptation to consider a broader set of values.

From the World Bank:

"Approaches for the Agricultural Sector and Beyond identifies challenges and solutions for carrying out project-level economic analysis of adaptation to climate change, both stand-alone and integrated into broader development projects. The focus is on the agricultural sector, where the impacts of climate change have the potential to disrupt the livelihoods of rural populations and where adaptation must be given urgent consideration."

Den-gue in the US-A

2010-07-19T22:14:00.002-04:00

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, multiple cases of locally-acquired dengue emerged in Florida in 2009-2010. The cause of the sudden reappearance of dengue is, of course, unknown. Chances are it's the result of increased international travel, particularly between Florida and other areas of the Carribean and Central and South America were dengue is endemic. Nevertheless, I'm sure someone somewhere is blaming climate change.

IPCC AR5 Authors

2010-07-19T21:08:00.003-04:00

The IPCC has released the names of those who will endure the slings and arrows of journalists, skeptics and governments over the next several years as they endeavor to produce the Fifth Assessment Report. The blog pages have been filled with praise and damnation for the IPCC process and/or the quality of the selected authors. As a lead author of WGII Chapter 16, I am, therefore, either contributing to the injection of fresh new insights into the IPCC process or, depending on one's perspective, enabling the IPCC's continued stealth issue advocacy (as Roger Pielke Jr. might phrase it) through the politicization of science. I prefer the former framing over the latter, but in any case, it will be a learning experience.

Mapping Migration

2010-07-19T20:49:00.005-04:00

The Center for International Earth Science Information Network at Columbia University and others released a report last month on climate change and migration. While title suggests the report maps climate-related migration, which would be a fairly impressive feat indeed, the maps within largely reflect different determinants of biophysical and socioeconomic vulnerability in different global regions. As such, it seems rather strange that the report suggests (in the Executive Summary) it contains "empirical evidence" of environmental change and migration, particularly given this statement is contradicted in the report's introduction. Nevertheless, it is a nice overview of the issue, which at least attempts to dig deeper into the geography of potential drivers of environmental migrants than most prior treatments of the subject.

From the Executive Summary:

"This report explores how environmental shocks and stresses, especially those
related to climate change, can push people to leave their homes in search of
'greener pastures' … or just to survive. In order to make informed decisions,
policymakers and development actors need a better understanding of the linkages
between environmental change, displacement and migration. This report,
therefore, offers:
empirical evidence from a first-time, multi-continent survey of environmental change and migration;
original maps illustrating how, and where, the impacts of climate change may prompt significant displacement and migration;
policy recommendations that reflect the collective thinking of key multi-lateral and research institutions, as well as nongovernmental organizations working directly with many of the world’s most vulnerable populations."

Temperatures Back at Record-Breaking Levels

2010-07-19T20:36:00.003-04:00

After all the pomp and circumstance at the end of the last decade regarding the mythological "cooling" of the planet, global temperatures have stage a bit of a comeback as of late. June, 2010 proved to be the warmest June on record, following on the heels of record average monthly temperatures for March, April and May. Half-way through the year, the Earth seems poised for a new Arctic sea ice minimum and 2010 could prove to claim the #1 spot for global temperature anomalies. But December is a long way away. . .

Stephen Schneider

2010-07-19T20:23:00.003-04:00

Dr. Stephen Schneider

1945-2010

Greenhouse 2009

2010-06-27T23:59:00.004-04:00

CSIRO Publishing has released a book containing papers from the Greenhouse 2009 conference that was held last year in Perth, Australia. A complete list of the book's contents are available here. I managed to get some of my own work into the book including Chapter 17: Managing Climate Risk in Human Settlements (with Robert Kay) and Chapter 19: A Critical Look at the State of Adaptation Planning (with Richard Westaway).

The book is available from multiple outlets including CSIRO Publishing and Amazon.

2010 International Climate Change Adaption Conference

2010-06-27T23:53:00.002-04:00

I've arrived in the Gold Coast, Australia for the 2010 International Climate Change Adaption Conference, which may prove to be one of the largest gatherings of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research community to date. Details on all conference events and presentations can be found in the conference handbook.

Fast Start Finance

2010-06-19T00:01:00.004-04:00

For those interested in fast start finance efforts under the Copenhagen Accord, ClimateWorks has prepared a publication under Project Catalyst identifying a number of prioritisation criteria for the allocation of the limited funds pledged to date as well as principles for their effective delivery.

Online Development Community

2010-06-18T23:55:00.002-04:00

The Center for Sustainable Development has launched an "Online Development Community" featuring a series of networks for knowledge sharing. In addition to one focusing on climate adaptation (which so far appears to be the most popular), networks are also available for a range of other development topics, from water to governance.

The Blue Revolution

2010-06-10T21:29:00.004-04:00

The Copenhagen Climate Council and Monday Morning have published a report on adaptation and water. The report highlights the lack of attention to the practical aspects of climate adaptation at the local level within international climate negotiations. The authors (Torkil Jønch Clausen and Carsten Bjerg) argue that it is time to move beyond discussing how much adaptation is needed and who will pay for it and begin focusing on the implementation of solutions and overcoming adaptation challenges. Furthermore, water, they argue, is the overarching issue for adaptation, particularly in the developing world.

Adaptation Fund Board Meeting

2010-06-10T21:26:00.001-04:00

The tenth meeting of the Adaptation Fund Board will take place in Bonn, Germany on June 15 and 16, 2010. Documents for the meetings, including the meeting agenda are now available from the AFB website.

Climate Adaptation in the Big Apple

2010-06-09T23:24:00.000-04:00

The New York City Panel on Climate Change has completed its work on climate change adaptation in the iconic city. The panel was convened in 2008 by Mayor Michael Bloomberg as part of the PlanNYC sustainability strategy. The resulting report presents climate change projections for NYC, potential impacts to the metropolis, and recommended adaptation responses and information needs to address knowledge gaps. While the report identifies a large number of potential options to facilitate adaptation in the Big Apple, as always, one must wait to see how many of these options are actually implemented. Fortunately, and to its credit, the panel discusses both the need for ongoing monitoring of climate change, impacts and adaptation as well as possible indicators that might be used to undertake such monitoring.

Local Action on Climate Change

2010-06-09T22:19:00.004-04:00

For those interested in climate adaptation activities at the local scale, two recent events may be of interest:

1. Dunkerque 2010 Call on Climate Action

Local and regional governments gathering under the framework of the European Sustainable Cities and Towns Conference collectively agreed to a series of requests relevant to climate adaptation with a particular emphasis on highlighting the valuable role of local governments in adaptation.

2. Bonn Declaration

Mayors who gathered at the recent 1st Congress on Cities and Adaptation: Resilient Cities 2010 unanimously adopted the Bonn Declaration, which states that global partnerships between national and local governments are critical for success in adapting to climate change.

International Action on Adaptation and Climate Change

2010-06-09T22:15:00.006-04:00

As part of all the action in Bonn for the current climate change talks, the WWF and Germanwatch have prepared a briefing paper on international climate change adaptation policy.

Summary

Adaptation to the (uncertain) adverse impacts of climate change increasingly becomes a necessity across the globe. This is not for its own sake, but to ensure that sustainable development will be possible, that investments into poverty reduction, food and water security and health will not be undone and that progress achieved towards the Millennium Development Goals will not be reversed.

This paper assesses the state of the adaptation negotiations under the UNFCCC after the historic climate summit of Copenhagen. It compares the current draft negotiating text (June 2010) and compares it to key essentials that an ambitious adaptation action framework needs to contain to assist developing countries live up to the challenge of adaptation. It further provides an assessment of the key unresolved negotiation issues and scenarios of possible outcomes at the next climate summit in Cancún.

The current negotiating text still bears the opportunity to create a strong, implementation-focused adaptation action framework, but requires clarification and strengthening in issues which are key to particularly vulnerable countries. This includes a strong financial mechanism which provides predictable and adequate support, and the establishment of an international mechanism to address loss and damage from climate change impacts with the immediate operationalisation of an insurance mechanism to deal with high-level extreme weather events, amongst others.

Resilient Adaptation to Climate Change in African Agriculture

2010-05-28T22:33:00.004-04:00

For those seeking some light reading this Memorial Day weekend, the German Development Institute has produced a report on resilience-based approaches to adaptation in African agriculture. The report is 336 pages, but here's a quick overview from the GDI's website:

Africa’s agriculture faces varying climate change impacts which mainly worsen production conditions and adversely affect its economies. Adaptations thus need to build the resilience of farming systems. Using “resilient adaptation” as a concept, this study analyses how adaptations at farm and policy/institutional-levels contribute to the resilience of Sub-Saharan African agriculture. The developed tool, “the Resilience Check”, provides socio-economic data which complements existing adaptation tools. The underlying development gaps such as insecure property rights, poverty, low self-organisation, inadequate climate data and infrastructure limit resilient adaptations. If farmers could implement recommended practices, existing measures and improved crops can address most impacts expected in the medium-term. However, resource use efficiency remains critical for all farm management types. Development-oriented adaptation measures are needed to provide the robust foundations for building resilience. Reaching the very poor remains a challenge and the externally driven nature of many interventions raises concern about their sustainability. The study recommends practical measures such as decentralising various services and integrating the action plans of the multilateral environmental agreements into one national action plan.

Africa Progress Report 2010

2010-05-28T22:03:00.003-04:00

This past week saw the release of the Africa Progress Panel's (APP) 2010 Progress Report. Chaired by Kofi Annan, the APP seeks to assess opportunities and threats to development in Africa, with particular emphases places on commitments made by other nations and the challenges to development posed by global climate change. The 2010 progress report attempts to summarize progress made across the continent over the past five years toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the contributions of developed nations toward these MDGs, and the additional resources that will be needed for them to be achieved.

The WRMF on Index Insurance

2010-05-23T17:07:00.008-04:00

The Weather Risk Management Facility recently produced an overview of the issue of weather index insurance. Index insurance, as defined in the report, "is a financial product linked to an index highly correlated to local yields." In contrast to traditional crop insurance, index insurance covers the risk of adverse environmental conditions (e.g., rainfall deficit) as opposed to suboptimal yields or production. As such, there's no threat of moral hazard as those who realize poor yields under favourable conditions can't benefit from an insurance payout. Furthermore, as index insurance is based upon a verifiable indicator, it is eligible for reinsurance, which further spreads the risk.

The report highlights the potential benefits of index insurance for agricultural risk management at range of scales (e.g., individual farmers to government agencies or relief organizations), but also notes some of the challenges. These include the complexity of establishing an index insurance market, which is dependent upon access to reliable environmental monitoring data and the ability to cultivate and maintain consistent market demand. Nevertheless, the report showcases a number of case studies where index insurance markets have been developed, often with success.

America's Climate Choices

2010-05-20T20:43:00.003-04:00

The U.S. National Research Council has released the first three reports from America's Climate Choices:

1) Advancing the Science of Climate Change

2) Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change

3) Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change

Two additional reports, one on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change and the penultimate America's Climate Choices, will be released in the months ahead. Briefs on the various reports are available via the National Academies website, although at the moment getting a decent look at the full report requires a bit of personal financial investment (not sure if that really sends a good message about transparency and promoting public awareness, but what do I know).

The brief on Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change offers an overview of the potential role of adaptation in the U.S., most of which covers similar territory as prior synthesis and assessment products from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program/Global Change Research Program (although none of those products focuses specifically on adaptation). However, the brief does highlight the need for a national adaptation strategy. Given similar rhetoric is emerging from the White House's Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (see here), I think it's fair to say that such a national strategy is in the cards in the next couple of years. It'll be interesting to see what other novel insights and recommendations the report offers.

Adaptation in Kerry-Lieberman

2010-05-12T19:21:00.003-04:00

U.S. Senators Kerry and Lieberman have finally unveiled their long-awaited comprehensive legislation to address climate change. The American Power Act (APA) treads over familiar territory as its predecessors: ambitious mid-century targets, market-based mechanisms, investments in renewable energy and carbon sequestration technology, enhanced domestic oil and gas production, and a host of tax credits to make it all go down a little easier. Naturally, the rhetoric from the Senators is full of references to 'green jobs' and 'national security.' Nevertheless, there is no shortage of pundits betting that this piece of legislation is dead on arrival.

On the adaptation front, the legislation focuses on natural resources. Title VI (Community Protection from Global Warming Impacts) includes a range of strategies to facilitate adaptation in natural resource sectors including mandatory federal agency and state-based adaptation plans, reinvestment of emissions allowance revenue in adaptation projects, science and monitoring, and the conservation of wildlife migration corridors. When it comes to the many other sectors that might be affected by climate change, the legislation simply indicates that the EPA Administrator may establish other adaptation programs for thing such as water resources management, fire protection, and coastal watersheds (all of which also have direct implications for conservation of natural resources and biodiversity, but maybe those links have been overlooked). Interestingly, nothing is said about adaptation of the energy sector - a bit strange given this is, after all, an energy bill. Title V (International Climate Change Programs) also includes an international climate change adaptation and global security program to help facilitate adaptation in vulnerable developing nations.

As usual, the Pew Center has links to the legislation.

Progress Report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force

2010-05-07T20:45:00.004-04:00

The U.S. Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force released it's progress report last month. So far, the Task Force has concluded that there is significant governmental and non-governmental activity with respect to adaptation. However, much of this activity represents the early stages of planning and problem orientation. A number of gaps have already been identified, which the Task Force claims justify the development of a national adaptation strategy:

• Coherent research programs to identify and describe regional impacts associated with near-term, long-term, and abrupt global climate change
• Relevant climate change and impact information that is accessible and usable by decision-makers and practitioners
• A unified strategic vision and approach
• Understanding of the challenges at all levels of government
• Comprehensive and localized risk and vulnerability assessments
• Organized and coordinated efforts across local, State and Federal agencies
• Strong links between, and support and participation of, Tribal, regional, State, and local partners
• A strategy to link resources, both financial and intellectual, to critical needs
• A robust approach to evaluating and applying lessons learned

The Task Force will deliver a final report by October of this year to the Office of the President,which will "detail the development of domestic and international dimensions of a U.S. strategy for adaptation to climate change, agency actions in support of that strategy development process, and recommendations for any further measures to advance towards a national strategy. The Task Force will not, however, deliver a complete U.S. adaptation strategy to the President."

Adapting Institutions to Climate Change

2010-05-04T22:29:00.005-04:00

The UK's Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution has released a report investigating the UK's institutional preparedness for climate change adaptation. The Commission collected evidence from over 80 organisations regarding institutional adaptive capacity and barriers to adaptation. Not surprisingly, the Commission found that the adaptation road is not one that is easily traveled. Many institutions in the UK are ill-equipped to pursue adaptation, yet the context-specific nature of adaptation and adaptive capacity makes it difficult to deliver clear recommendations that are universally relevant. As such, the Commission instead highlighted a number of key considerations in adaptation planning:

1. The policy framework
2. Specific institutional arrangements
3. Resources to build capacity
4. Equity
5. Public engagement

Climate Change Indicators in the United States

2010-05-02T21:10:00.005-04:00

The U.S. EPA has developed a suite of climate change indicators that can be used to monitor both the causes of climate change (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) as well as the consequences (e.g., tropical cyclone intensities, heat waves, etc.). None of the indicators appear to be particularly novel, but as the report indicates, they were selected based upon "usefulness, objectivity, data quality, transparency, ability to show a meaningful trend, and relevance to climate change".

As a regulatory agency, such indicators help form the evidence base for justifying regulatory action and for demonstrating the effectiveness of those actions. Previously, the EPA lacked firmly established indicators specifically for climate change. As a consequence, if one examines the 2008 Report on the Environment: Highlights of National Trends, one finds that climate change gets little treatment, and there are very few indicators that provide any measure of climate trends. With 24 climate change indicators now available, the EPA is presumably better equipped to monitor and, more importantly, report on U.S. climate change trends.

Pew Center on Federal Adaptation Policy

2010-05-02T19:32:00.005-04:00

I've been out of the climate change adaptation game for a few weeks, but I'm slowing trying to get myself caught up with what I've missed. First up, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change has released another report addressing the issue of adaptation. Adapting to Climate Change: A Call for Federal Leadership takes a look at what the U.S. federal government can and perhaps should be doing to drive the issue of climate adaptation from the top down. In so doing, it highlights actions that have been taken in other nations (e.g., Australia, UK) as well as at the state level (e.g., California, Florida, Maryland) as potential models for the design of U.S. federal policy. After 12 years of offering recommendations regarding the design of U.S. policy on greenhouse gas mitigation, it's nice to see the Pew Center finally giving adaptation policy the same treatment.

Breaking News from Adaptation Online

2010-03-16T07:59:00.000-04:00

Climate Change & NEPA

2010-03-16T07:58:00.004-04:00

The U.S. White House has taken steps toward the development of climate change guidance for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), one of the key environmental policy instruments for minimising adverse environmental consequences from federally-funded projects. The Council on Environmental Quality has published a draft guidance document for comment, the overall intention of which can be summarised as follows:

"With regards to the effects of climate change on the design of a proposed action and alternatives, Federal agencies must ensure the scientific and professional integrity of their assessment of the ways in which climate change is affecting or could affect environmental effects of the proposed action. Under this proposed guidance, agencies should use the scoping process to set reasonable spatial and temporal boundaries for this assessment and focus on aspects of climate change that may lead to changes in the impacts, sustainability, vulnerability and design of the proposed action and alternative courses of action. At the same time, agencies should recognize the scientific limits of their ability to accurately predict climate change effects, especially of a short-term nature, and not devote effort to analyzing wholly speculative effects. Agencies can use the NEPA process to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts, adapt to changes in our environment, and mitigate the impacts of Federal agency actions that are exacerbated by climate change."

While a White House source is quoted as saying the guidance is "straightforward, common sense," the release no doubt prompted many rumblings throughout Washington, if not the nation. While the utility of mainstreaming consideration for climate change into agency actions appears initially to be self-evident, the challenge of making such consideration routine is significant. As of yet, there are no standard methods for the assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability or risk and, similarly, the evaluation of adaptation options and their costs remains a young and naive practice. Meanwhile, the challenges associated with carbon accounting are perhaps even more profound. Should such guidance go forward to become part of the NEPA process, we are sure to see the rapid expansion of practitioners in climate assessment and carbon management. At some point, however, someone should give thought as to how those practitioners will be trained and what methods and standards they will employ.

UPDATE (5/4/2010): Congressional Republicans (led by James Inhofe) are apparently not particularly pleased with the proposed incorporation of climate change into NEPA.

Adapting Australia's Agriculture

2010-03-16T07:23:00.007-04:00

Two recent releases have highlighted the role of adaptation in Australian agriculture. The first is a new book from CSIRO Publishing entitled, Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change, provides a comprehensive look at climate change, its implications for Australian agriculture and opportunities for adaptation. It covers multiple agriculture sectors, from cropping to forestry to fisheries, as well as the adaptive capacity of land managers (contents). Further, the linkages between adaptation and mitigation are addressed with a look at greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. The book is available now through CSIRO Publishing.

Meanwhile, a new parliamentary report has been tabled by the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Primary Industries and Resources, entitled Farming the Future. The Committee was charged with reporting on the potential impacts of climate change to Australian agriculture, the role of government in facilitating adaptation, and the potential contributions of rural research and development to assist in the adaptation process. Ultimately, the report makes a number of recommendations to be taken up by Federal, State and Territory governments. While those recommendations to some extent appear to represent a wish list for Australian farmers, a common theme is the importance of empowering local, community-based solutions as opposed to top-down, 'one-size-fits-all' policies.

Climate Patriots

2010-03-16T07:12:00.004-04:00

The United States' Pew Project on National Security, Energy and Climate is currently promoting its Climate Patriots series, which features interviews with notable military leaders who highlight the security benefits of a robust response to climate change.

In Defense of Science

2010-03-16T04:04:00.007-04:00

The international press has been quick to illustrate the myriad ways in which climate change science has taken a beating in recent months, thanks to 'Climategate', the IPCC's errors and the so-called resurgence of climate scepticism. Although is it arguable whether such bad PR merits a rethink regarding the state of climate science, scientific institutions are clearly on the backfoot, and much effort is being devoted to reiterating where 'the science' stands. This has manifested with a UN call for an independent review of the IPCC process, not to mention the scientific review of research at the University of East Anglia (which is producing its own controversies) and the scrutiny of Penn State's Michael Mann. Meanwhile, various surveys are indicating that society-at-large may be growing weary of climate warnings (see, for example, here or here).

In Australia, the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology have frequently been called upon to provide updates to the Federal Government regarding the state of climate change science, and recently they did so once again. The latest "snapshot" provides an up-to-date overview of trends in climate and greenhouse gases in Australia. While the brief report received significant media coverage (much of it phrased as "science strikes back"), it really doesn't offer anything new to the increasingly partisan debate in Australia (although the two scientific institutions were quickly accused of playing politics). In fact, while the report presents observed trends, it doesn't provide any evidence regarding the attribution of those trends, other than to reiterate IPCC statements regarding human attribution of observed global changes. Nor does it give the public any indication of why such trends should be of concern. Presenting the science of climate change without directly addressing the "so what" questions that invariably arise is a recipe for apathy. And the more scientists appear defensive, the more they feed the perception that they may in fact have gotten something wrong.

Climate Adaptation Coordinator

2010-02-14T22:16:00.001-05:00

Climate Change Adaptation Position at the Wildlife Conservation Society

Job title: Climate Adaptation Coordinator
Reports to: Challenges Director (to be appointed), Chief Conservation Officer (in the meantime)

Description: The Climate Adaptation Coordinator is a full time position based at the Bronx Zoo, the New York headquarters of the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). WCS, an international conservation organization, seeks candidates interested in applying their analytical and strategic skills to advancing the cause of conservation of wildlife and wild places.

For more details, see http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/job/J000004887

U.S. Climate Service

2010-02-14T21:52:00.003-05:00

After years of workshops, press releases, reports and behind-the-scenes lobbying, the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has announced it is moving ahead with the creation of the U.S. Climate Service. The new agency will be charged with delivering climate information and analyses, much like the weather service has operationalised weather forecasting. NOAA has launched an Internet portal and has proposed a range of services including climate data analyses, detection and attribution studies, vulnerability and risk assessments, and stakeholder outreach and engagement.

The service is being touted as a major step forward in supporting climate adaptation efforts in the United States. However, much of this is based upon the presumption that access to climate data and information regarding impacts is a current barrier to adaptation. To some extent this assumption is certainly true, although much of the challenges of adaptation facing the United States are probably more closely tied to non-climate factors such as demographic change, poor governance, and societal values. To what extent the Climate Service will be able to engage or even recognise these barriers and identify pathways through which science can ameliorate them remains to be seen. Nevertheless, it is clear that a major milestone has been achieved when climate is recognised as such a significant force as to warrant its own agency.

London Draft Adaptation Strategy

2010-02-14T20:48:00.003-05:00

Mayor Boris Johnson has released the Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for London for public comment. Or rather, perhaps one should state that he has once again released the Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for London. Johnson generated headlines around the world back in August of 2008 with his draft strategy, which was due to be finalised in 2009. Here we are in February of 2010, and we're still looking at draft versions of the document - this one appears to be intended to solicit public comment as part of an engagement effort with the broader London public.

The current version of the strategy examines three hazards (flooding, drought and overheating)and their implications on four different asset categories (health, environment, economy and infrastructure). The report subsequently identifies the range of risks arising from climate change, the suite of relevant adaptation options and provides a 'roadmap to resilience' which identifies the responsible agent and timeline for implementing each option.

The mayor is apparently eager for ideas from the public on how to adapt. We'll see what happens next. . .

Winter Weather and Climate Change

2010-02-14T19:15:00.006-05:00

The IPCC has taken a few hits in recent weeks, in part due to the fallout arising from the publication of an erroneous estimate of loss of Himalayan glaciers by 2035 within the Working Group II report of the Fourth Assessment Report. The estimate has been attributed to a WWF report which left much to be desired regarding scientific quality and control, and, as a consequence, many are now raising questions regarding the potential pitfalls of including 'grey' literature in IPCC scientific assessments.

Environmental NGOs play an important role as boundary organisations that help to communicate the science of climate change to a the public. However, such communication is inherently biased by organisational agendas, making it difficult to distinguish between situations where science is being used to educated the public from those where it is being used to tell a compelling story (and sometimes the two aren't mutually exclusive).

A case-in-point is a recent report from the National Wildlife Federation, Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’s Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States. Apparently, the harshness of this year's northern hemisphere winter is just one more example of how climate change is altering our environment with disastrous outcomes. While the report is littered with citations and there may be plausible mechanisms by which a warming global climate can enhance winter extremes, the overall argument is that regardless of what season one considers, any weather extreme is evidence of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, climate change is likely to generate counter-intuitive consequences, with the report arguing that ski resorts will experience shorter seasons with less snowfall, yet other areas of the United States will experience higher snowfall totals. Such claims expose both boundary organisations and the scientists whose research they quote to criticisms of bias and alarmism, particularly when potential positives of warmer winters (such as longer growing seasons or reduced winter mortality) are conveniently neglected.

Given how much attention is focused on the challenge of communicating the complexity of climate change, one wonders whether organisations such as the NWF are making the communication effort more difficult than it needs to be. How can the public have confidence in climate science when they are told that the consequence of warmer winters will be less snow except in those regions where snowfall increases? Even if there is a scientific basis for such conclusions, one cannot expect the public (or the media) to comprehend the nuances and such counter-intuitive messages make easy work for climate sceptics.

Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan

2010-02-14T18:45:00.003-05:00

The City of Punta Gorda, Florida has prepared a climate change adaptation plan in partnership with a range of federal, state and local organisations which combines impact and vulnerability assessment with adaptation planning and prioritisation through public participation.

The report identifies eight key vulnerabilities arising from climate change:

Fish and Wildlife Habitat Degradation;
Inadequate Water Supply;
Flooding;
Unchecked or Unmanaged Growth;
Water Quality Degradation;
Education and Economy and Lack of Funds;
Fire; and
Availability of insurance

Adaptation options were identified and prioritised through a public workshop resulting
104 acceptable and 34 unacceptable recommended adaptations across the different vulnerabilities. From this exercise, the report identifies a short list of the most acceptable adaptations that included the following:

Seagrass protection and restoration;
Xeriscaping and native plant landscaping;
Explicitly indicating in the comprehensive plan which areas will retain natural shorelines;
Constraining locations for certain high risk infrastructure;
Restrict fertilizer use; and
Promote green building alternatives through education, taxing incentives, green lending.
Drought preparedness planning.

Nevertheless, one can't help but wonder what the implications are of excluding certain adaptation options due to a lack of public support, as it could very well be that a range of adaptation actions are needed to maintain assets valued by society even if society doesn't recognise the importance of those actions. In fact, a closer inspection of the report reveals a range of adaptation actions that are rejected by Punta Gorda which are mainstream responses in other parts of the world.

Climate Change and the SEC

2010-02-14T18:24:00.006-05:00

At the end of last month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission voted to require companies to disclose climate risks to investors. Such risks may include the following:

Impact of Legislation and Regulation: When assessing potential disclosure obligations, a company should consider whether the impact of certain existing laws and regulations regarding climate change is material. In certain circumstances, a company should also evaluate the potential impact of pending legislation and regulation related to this topic.
Impact of International Accords: A company should consider, and disclose when material, the risks or effects on its business of international accords and treaties relating to climate change.
Indirect Consequences of Regulation or Business Trends: Legal, technological, political and scientific developments regarding climate change may create new opportunities or risks for companies. For instance, a company may face decreased demand for goods that produce significant greenhouse gas emissions or increased demand for goods that result in lower emissions than competing products. As such, a company should consider, for disclosure purposes, the actual or potential indirect consequences it may face due to climate change related regulatory or business trends.
Physical Impacts of Climate Change: Companies should also evaluate for disclosure purposes the actual and potential material impacts of environmental matters on their business.

WHO Report on Climate Science, Policy and People

2010-01-12T18:39:00.004-05:00

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released a report which provides an update on the science of climate change and human health. Protecting Health from Climate Change: Connecting Science, Policy and People summarises climate change science as well as the various pathways by which climate change can affect human health: air quality, water availability and quality, disease, and exposure to extreme climatic events. The report also emphasises the interactions among poverty, social vulnerability, and public health systems in determining health outcomes. The protection of human health and well-being is argued to be the 'bottom line' in climate change mitigation, and adaptation efforts and policy efforts should be focused on poverty reduction, the maintenance of robust health systems, and climate friendly adaptation strategies for the health sector that don't exacerbate climate change.

New Adaptation Reports from Canada

2010-01-10T14:16:00.002-05:00

Two recent reports on adaptation have emerged from Canada:

A) The Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation's report Adapting to Climate Change in Ontario: Towards the Design and Implementation of a Strategy and Action Plan.

Rather than leaping ahead with the development of specific adaptation options for the province, the report "describes the strategic goals and specific recommendations from the Panel to inform both the development of a strategy and an action plan". To this end, the report identifies five strategic goals:

Enhance government leadership
integrate adaptation
Support communities
Develop and disseminate knowledge and tools to manage risk
Collaborate with other governments

The report also recommends the establishment of a Climate Change Adaptation Directorate in the Ministry of the Environment and continued investments in climate science and modelling as well as specific adaptation options to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

B) National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy's report True North: Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change in Northern Canada. The report focuses on the challenge of climate change and adaptation for the nation's infrastructure, particularly in the higher latitudes, where climate change is proceeding at a more rapid rate than elsewhere.

The report makes a number of recommendations:

The Canadian Government should adjust funding vehicles for infrastructure development and rehabilitation so that they become incentives to integrate the risk of damage from climate change in infrastructure decisions.
National codes and standards for engineering and construction should be reviewed
and modified to accommodate risks of climate change.
Governments and the insurance industry need to work together so that Canadians continue to have access to affordable insurance in a changing climate and so that insurance products encourage modifications to infrastructure in light of climate risks.
Governments at all levels should collaborate with northern experts to develop
the best possible design and engineering guidelines for the North.
The Government of Canada should invest in updating and providing more comprehensive climate data, climate change projections, and information for infrastructure design.
The Government of Canada needs to share the expertise and experience of Canada’s North in addressing climate risks to infrastructure with other polar nations as part of Canada’s Northern Strategy.

UNFCCC Review of Adaptation Costs and Benefits

2010-01-09T21:55:00.003-05:00

For those interested in information on the costs and benefits of adaptation, the UNFCCC has prepared a literature review. Potential Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options:
A Review of Existing Literature reviews methodological approaches for cost and benefit analysis of adaptation as well as global, national and sub-national studies of costs and benefits. However, the study reveals much of the information on adaptation costs and benefits targets the global or national level, largely to either a) justify expenditures on greenhouse gas mitigation, or b) identify the adaptation needs of the developing world. Yet the implementation of adaptation is likely to proceed at the local level on a project-by-project basis. Hence, and as recommended in the UNFCCC report, significant effort should be invested in the future in better characterising adaptation costs and benefits at the local scale.

Population and Adaptation

2009-12-29T11:50:00.006-05:00

The latest issue of the Bulletin of the World Health Organisation contains an article discussing the role of family planning in addressing the implications of climate change in the least developed nations, as reflected in the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs):

"While the concerns of the different NAPA reports regarding rapid population growth and climate change are diverse, three key themes emerge: (i) reducing supply – rapid population growth and climate change act cumulatively to degrade the source of key natural resources, for example through soil erosion and deforestation; (ii) increasing demand – rapid population growth is projected to escalate the demand for resources that are diminished by climate change, including fresh water and food; and (iii) vulnerability to natural disaster – rapid population growth heightens human vulnerability to natural disasters caused by climate change, such as by forcing more people to migrate and settle in areas at risk of floods, storms, drought and infectious disease."

The study finds that most NAPAs acknowledge the role of population as a factor contributing to vulnerability, yet few directly raise the issue of population control and family planning as a means of addressing that vulnerability. The same can be said of the developed world, where there continues to be concern about climate change and its potential impacts, but continued population growth, patterns of development and resource consumption are frequently taken as a given. At some point, if we are to get serious about addressing climate risk we have to acknowledge and address the role of demographic change in enhancing human exposure to climate. While the topic of population control will likely remain taboo among developed nations, there are substantial opportunities for rethinking where people are located on the landscape. Otherwise, net vulnerability to climate variability and change will continue to rise even as adaptation helps to reduce risk at the margin.

Waiting for the Great Leap Forwards

2009-12-20T11:16:00.009-05:00

COP-15 has come to a close, not with a bang, but with a whimper. As anticipated, the proceedings fell far short of a new binding agreement on international greenhouse gas mitigation to avoid dangerous climate change. In essence, the international community simply agreed to continue to work toward a low-carbon world, without necessarily specifying the pathway or those responsible for leading the way. As such, nations have largely agreed to do what was originally agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention in 1992. That's not much progress for almost 20 years of policy development. Given the amount of money and energy invested in hosting the conference and transporting its various attendees from different corners of the world, one wonders whether the climate would have been better off if everyone had simply remained at home. One also wonders whether the continued failure to produce a robust international effort on mitigation will spur more regional to local efforts around adaptation.

New Tools from WRI

2009-12-13T03:54:00.003-05:00

The following are a list of new or updated tools from WRI relevant to climate adaptation:

The National Adaptive Capacity framework "WRI is leading the development of a new way of thinking about adaptation planning, using a framework called the National Adaptive Capacity (NAC). NAC articulates a fundamental set of national-level functions that all countries will need to perform if they are to be adapting effectively over time. These functions include assessment, prioritization, information management, coordination, and risk reduction."

Adaptation Planning under a Copenhagen Agreement "As UNFCCC negotiators work to develop shared expectations around adaptation planning, it is critical that they provide a high degree of flexibility to countries, so that planning processes can be domestically “owned” and plans effectively implemented. The UNFCCC should not require countries to undertake specific planning processes or deliver plans in a specific format."

Paying the Premium "In this bulletin, WRI examines current insurance proposals under discussion in the UNFCCC and considers options for a global agreement in promoting insurance as a climate change solution."

CAIT (International) v.7.0 "WRI's Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT), provides a comprehensive and comparable database of greenhouse gases and other climate-relevant indicators. CAIT 7.0 features greenhouse gas data through 2006 for most countries of the world, updated CO2 projections data, and revised estimates of land-use change and forestry CO2 emissions (1990-2005)."

CAIT-V&A v.3.0 "WRI's CAIT-Vulnerability & Adaptation (V&A) module provides indicators and analysis tools designed to inform policy discussions concerning vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The latest release of CAIT-V&A (v.3.0) features a revised and updated suite of vulnerability indicators, comprehensive source notes and technical documentation, improved mapping and charting tools, and a more user-friendly interface."

COP-15: $10 Billion for Adaptation

2009-12-11T22:04:00.004-05:00

COP-15: The EU has pledged 7.2 billion euros (US$10.8 billion) over the next three years to assist developing nations with addressing climate change. The pledge will help address part of the UN request for US$30 billion in immediate funding to aid developing nations, but there is clearly a significant shortfall yet to be satisfied. Furthermore, if the world has trouble pulling $30 billion together to address immediate needs, one wonders whether developed nations will ever find the will to help fund the $100-150 billion in adaptation assistance that it's estimated the developing world will need by 2030.

The Climate of 2009

2009-12-09T01:04:00.005-05:00

As we approach the end of the year, various research institutions are busily crunching the numbers and offering estimates of where 2009 sits with respect to global mean temperature. At the moment, based upon the GHCN/USHCN/SCAR data, 2009 is shaping up to be the fifth warmest year on record (0.56 C above the 1950-1981 baseline), with the 00's being the warmest decade on record. The new data point also eliminates room to wiggle when it comes to claims such as "the climate has cooled in the past ten years" or "the climate has cooled since 1998," as neither claim can now be substantiated (not that they were ever particularly relevant in the first place).

Image from Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Palin on Science Policy

2009-12-08T22:45:00.002-05:00

In a clear demonstration that she has no appreciation for the concept of irony, Sarah Plain has penned an opinion piece for the Washington Post highlighting the pitfalls of the politicization of climate science in which she does just that. In the article, she concludes that the Climate-Gate affair "exposed a highly politicized scientific circle" and that there is no consensus on climate change science after all. She then goes on to stress the importance of quality science to the policy process by making inaccurate generalisations about both science and policy:

"But while we recognize the occurrence of these natural, cyclical environmental
trends, we can't say with assurance that man's activities cause weather changes.
We can say, however, that any potential benefits of proposed emissions reduction
policies are far outweighed by their economic costs."

The first sentence above is quite inconsistent with the science on the attribution of global climate change, although I suspect the phrase "weather changes" was used quite intentionally in lieu of "climate changes" given few scientists would attempt to attribute a particular weather event to global climate change. Alternatively, perhaps Palin doesn't understand the distinction between climate and weather, in which case one wonders why she's wading into the debate at all. Nonetheless, this is beside the point. Meanwhile, the second sentence is inconsistent with any of the attempts to actually compare the costs and benefits of climate policy. Yes, cap-and-trade policies will pose costs to the economy (that is in fact their entire point), but integrated assessments such as the Stern and Garnaut reviews have indicated the benefits of moving to a low-carbon economy are substantial in themselves.

She wraps up the piece by stating that Copenhagen is a "politicized conference" which the President should boycott. Well, of course it's a politicized conference. COP-15 is not a scientific conference, it is a policy conference, where politics can, should and will be center stage. Therefore, suggesting a political leader boycott a political event, because it is political doesn't seem to remotely resemble anything approaching a rational argument.

California Releases its Final Adaptation Strategy

2009-12-06T14:53:00.003-05:00

The State of California has released the final version of its Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in the wake of a public comment period earlier this year. The strategy, which was prepared in response to Executive Order S-13-08 from Governor Schwarzenegger, presents an extended discussion of climate change and its potential impacts to California as well as a range of adaptation options to reduce vulnerability and risk.

Key recommendations include:

A Climate Adaptation Advisory Panel (CAAP) will be appointed to assess the greatest risks to California from climate change and recommend strategies to reduce those risks building on California’s Climate Adaptation Strategy. This panel will be convened by the California Natural Resources Agency, in coordination with the Governor’s Climate Action Team, to complete a report by December 2010. The state will partner with the Pacific Council on International Policy to assemble this panel. A list of panel members can be found on the California adaptation Web site.

California must change its water management and uses because climate change will likely create greater competition for limited water supplies needed by the environment, agriculture, and cities. As directed by the recently signed water legislation (Senate Bill X71), state agencies must implement strategies to achieve a statewide 20 percent reduction in per capita water use by 2020, expand surface and groundwater storage, implement efforts to fix Delta water supply, quality, and ecosystem conditions, support agricultural water use efficiency,improve state-wide water quality, and improve Delta ecosystem conditions and stabilize water supplies as developed in the Bay Delta Conservation Plan.

Consider project alternatives that avoid significant new development in areas that cannot be adequately protected (planning, permitting, development, and building) from flooding, wildfire and erosion due to climate change. The most risk-averse approach for minimizing the adverse effects of sea level rise and storm activities is to carefully consider new development within areas vulnerable to inundation and erosion. State agencies should generally not plan,develop, or build any new significant structure in a place where that structure will require significant protection from sea level rise, storm surges, or coastal erosion during the expected life of the structure. However, vulnerable shoreline areas containing existing development that have regionally significant economic, cultural, or social value may have to be protected, and in-fill development in these areas may be accommodated. State agencies should incorporate this policy into their decisions and other levels of government are also encouraged to do so.

All state agencies responsible for the management and regulation of public health,
infrastructure or habitat subject to significant climate change should prepare as appropriate agency-specific adaptation plans, guidance, or criteria by September 2010.

To the extent required by CEQA Guidelines Section 15126.2, all significant state projects, including infrastructure projects, must consider the potential impacts of locating such projects in areas susceptible to hazards resulting from climate change. Section 15126.2 is currently being proposed for revision by CNRA to direct lead agencies to evaluate the impacts of locating development in areas susceptible to hazardous conditions, including hazards potentially exacerbated by climate change. Locating state projects in such areas may require additional guidance that in part depends on planning tools that the CAS recommendations call for.

The California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) will collaborate with CNRA, the CAT, the Energy Commission, and the CAAP to assess California's vulnerability to climate change, identify impacts to state assets, and promote climate adaptation/mitigation awareness through the Hazard Mitigation Web Portal and My Hazards Website as well as other appropriate sites. The transportation sector CAWG, led by Caltrans, will specifically assess how transportation nodes are vulnerable and the type of information that will be necessary to assist response to district emergencies. Special attention will be paid to the most vulnerable communities impacted by climate change in all studies.

Using existing research the state should identify key California land and aquatic habitats that could change significantly during this century due to climate change. Based on this identification, the state should develop a plan for expanding existing protected areas or altering land and water management practices to minimize adverse effects from climate change induced phenomena.

The best long-term strategy to avoid increased health impacts associated with climate change is to ensure communities are healthy to build resilience to increased spread of disease and temperature increases. The California Department of Public Health will develop guidance by September 2010 for use by local health departments and other agencies to assess mitigation and adaptation strategies, which include impacts on vulnerable populations and communities and assessment of cumulative health impacts. This includes assessments of land use, housing and transportation proposals that could impact health, GHG emissions, and community resilience for climate change, such as in the 2008 Senate Bill 375 regarding Sustainable Communities.

The most effective adaptation strategies relate to short and long-term decisions. Most of these decisions are the responsibility of local community planning entities. As a result, communities with General Plans and Local Coastal Plans should begin, when possible, to amend their plans to assess climate change impacts, identify areas most vulnerable to these impacts, and develop reasonable and rational risk reduction strategies using the CAS as guidance. Every effort will be made to provide tools, such as interactive climate impact maps, to assist in these efforts.

State fire fighting agencies should begin immediately to include climate change impact information into fire program planning to inform future planning efforts. Enhanced wildfire risk from climate change will likely increase public health and safety risks, property damage, fire suppression and emergency response costs to government, watershed and water quality impacts, and vegetation conversions and habitat fragmentation.

State agencies should meet projected population growth and increased energy demand with greater energy conservation and an increased use of renewable energy. Renewable energy supplies should be enhanced through the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan that will protect sensitive habitat that will while helping to reach the state goal of having 33 percent of California’s energy supply from renewable sources by 2020.

Existing and planned climate change research can and should be used for state planning and public outreach purposes; new climate change impact research should be broadened and funded. By September 2010, the California Energy Commission will develop the CalAdapt Web site that will synthesize existing California climate change scenarios and climate impact research and to encourage its use in a way that is beneficial for local decision-makers. Every effort will be made to increase funding for climate change research, focusing on three areas:linkages with federal funding resources, developing Energy Commission -led vulnerability studies, and synthesizing the latest climate information into useable information for local needs through the CalAdapt tool.

Spash Resigns over Censorship Claims

2009-12-04T17:32:00.004-05:00

After almost a month of mudslinging in the media (and nine months of negotiations behind closed doors), Clive Spash, Science Leader in CSIRO's Division of Sustainable Ecosystems, has resigned from the organisation over allegations CSIRO has attempted to censor his critique of carbon trading policies such as those currently being pursued by the Australian government.

CSIRO's charter bars its researchers or the organisation from commenting on government or opposition policy, and the organisation has suggested that Spash's paper, The Brave New World of Carbon Trading, crosses the line by advocating against the government's emissions trading scheme. In his defense, Spash has argued his paper is a "dispassionate critique, " and he notes that it is very difficult to undertake policy relevant work on the economics of greenhouse gas mitigation policy without making some comment directly or indirectly on actual policies.

It's probably fair to say that Spash has strong views on the subject of the economics of climate change policy, from the structure of the policies being proposed to address climate change to the underlying social values that underpin those policies. As such, I'm not sure how dispassionate Spash's critique really is. Yet the point here is that while CSIRO's charter may seem sensible on paper, it is rather easy to demonstrate it as being untenable in practice. For example, if the coalition currently in opposition in federal government were to decide that its official party position on climate change is that climate change doesn't exist, does that mean the CSIRO would not be allowed to publish any research to the contrary for fear of violating its charter against commenting on specific policy initiatives? Of course not.

In fact, CSIRO's services have been retained repeatedly by the current government to help defend the science of climate change and address queries by skeptical politicians in the lead up to the vote on the government's ETS. Steve Hatfield-Dodds published a number of studies on emissions trading while employed by CSIRO (e.g., Energy Affordability, Living Standards and Emissions Trading), which certainly seem to address government policy, but in so doing treat that policy as a fait accompli rather than something that should be viewed with a critical eye. Meanwhile, CSIRO researchers have participated in a number of projects that effectively advocate for greenhouse emissions reductions policies through an examination of the costs and benefits of different emissions targets and pathways and their subsequent implications for climate change impacts (e.g., Energy Futures Forum, the Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change, and of course the Garnaut Review which was anything but apolitical). If one chose (and some do), one could argue that such acts represent CSIRO scientists being asked to lobby on behalf of the federal government. Furthermore, it's worth noting that the powers that be in CSIRO remain markedly silent when the federal government opts not to release (in whole or in part) federally-commissioned CSIRO research on climate change when the government finds the research a bit too controversial or inconvenient.

Thus the critical problem with CSIRO's charter is that it is open to some interpretation and, therefore, inconsistently applied. This is due perhaps to the charter being inconsistent in itself. On one hand, the charter states,
"The Government and CSIRO recognise that there may be divergent views on both issues of pulic interest and the expert advice that is provided in relation to them. The parties each agree that vigorous open debate of these views is important; as is the right of researchers to change their opinion in the light of such debate or new findings from research".
Yet, later, the charter also states,
". . . a responsibility of CSIRO and its researchers is to inform the policy making process. They can do this by conducting the highest quality research and providing the best available knowledge and analysis to government and the public, and by engaging in the public discussion and consideration of their research and findings. They should not be asked by Government to defend or debate the merits of Government policy. As CSIRO employees, they should not advocate, defend or publicly debate the merits of government or opposition policies (including policies of previous Commonwealth governments, or State or local or foreign governments).
Based on my reading, these passages make a distinction between public interest and public policy. Personally, it's hard to see how CSIRO can support the former while ignoring the latter, given that many of the challenges CSIRO is charged with finding solutions to have arisen, at least in part, from institutional decision-making. A charter that encourages researchers to provide critical analysis to government and engage in public debate while simultaneously barring scientists from undertaking such acts when they pertain to government policy is simply schizophrenic. I challenge anyone to develop a consistent way of resolving the internal conflicts of the charter in a manner that doesn't tie the hands of researchers or leave decision-makers in the dark. This clearly hasn't happened so far, which is why CSIRO has just lost another bright mind.

"The Science and Politics of Climate Change"

2009-12-04T06:26:00.003-05:00

UEA's Mike Hulme has a timely opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on 'Climategate', Skeptics, Copenhagen and the politicization of science:

[Excerpt] "Science never writes closed textbooks. It does not offer us a holy scripture, infallible and complete. This is especially the case with the science of climate, a complex system of enormous scale, at every turn influenced by human contingencies. Yes, science has clearly revealed that humans are influencing global climate and will continue to do so, but we don't know the full scale of the risks involved, nor how rapidly they will evolve, nor indeed—with clear insight—the relative roles of all the forcing agents involved at different scales."

WWF, Tyndall and Allianz on Tipping Points

2009-12-04T05:58:00.003-05:00

In another example of timely, pre-Copenhagen publication the insurer Allianz commissioned the WWF to produce a study of tipping points in the climate and Earth system. The report examines the socio-economic consequences and insurance implications associated with four key impacts arising from tipping points:

Global sea level rise of up to 2 metres
Shifts in hydrological systems in Asia
Committed die-back of the Amazon rainforest
Shift to a very arid climatology in South-western North America

And just to make sure the study is user friendly, an animated version of the report is also available.

PESETA Project

2009-12-04T05:23:00.005-05:00

Just in time for Copenhagen, the European Union's Joint Research Centre has released a report with results from the PESETA project (Projection of Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Sectors of the European Union Based on Bottom-Up Analysis). The project represents an integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on five key European sectors (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, tourism, and human health) under climatic and socio-economic scenarios. These impacts are then translated into economic impacts through the use of the GEM-E3 Europe computable general equilibrium model. As with most other similar studies, the reports suggests economic impacts on the order of 0.7 to 1% of GDP, depending on the magnitude of future climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation.

New Adaptation Reports from GTZ

2009-12-04T04:49:00.005-05:00

The German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) has released a number of new publications relevant to climate adaptation:

Water and Adaptation to Climate Change, Consequences for Developing Countries
Mark Svendsen and Nana Künkel

Climate Change and Agriculture, Threats and Opportunities
Mark W Rosegrant, Mandy Ewing, Gary Yohe, Ian Burton, Saleemul Huq and Rowena Valmonte-Santos

Climate Change and Security
Alexander Carius, Dennis Tänzler and Achim Maas

Commonwealth Adaptation Commitment

2009-12-01T06:34:00.002-05:00

At the meeting of Commonwealth nations in Trinidad and Tobago last week, nations agreed to the development of a Copenhagen Launch Fund to support adaptation. The fund is scheduled to start in 2010 and amount to $10 billion per year by 2012. Nations agreed to prioritise the most vulnerable nations for assistance and to set-aside at least 10% of the fund for adaptation in small island and low lying coastal states.

The full text of the Port of Spain Climate Change Consensus is available here.